Darius Garland

LA Clippers · G · #10

MIA @ LAC · Today 10:30 PM

Over Under21.5

Under 21.5 Points, typical price −1283 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs guards
MIA allow 70.4 points a game to guards: 2nd most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Jordan Miller: Out (shoulder)
Under 21.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: 12 of 18 (26 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Bradley Beal: Out (knee)
Under 21.5 without him: 16 of 26; with him: no games (26 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 32.4 min · 2025–26: 29.8 (45 games)

60%6 of 10L10

Under 21.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs DAL, 2026-04-07: 22, missed, 28 min
at POR, 2026-04-10: 16, hit, 41 min
vs GS, 2026-04-12: 15, hit, 27 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-21: 30, missed, 32 min
at LAL, 2026-10-23: 26, missed, 37 min
at OKC, 2026-10-25: 16, hit, 36 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-28: 14, hit, 26 min
at MIN, 2026-10-30: 24, missed, 31 min
at GS, 2026-11-01: 15, hit, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-11-02: 16, hit, 36 min

Under hitMissedThe 21.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 12.3–28.6 points.

Splits

Under 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 10; Under 21.5 hit in 7 of 9 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 21.5 · L10

Rui HachimuraF
Keaton WaglerG
Brook LopezC
Jordan MillerGOut
Bradley BealGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Clippers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Garland didn't play the Dec 1, 2025 meeting; points the last time Garland faced them: 11 (Nov 10, 2025)

Under 21.5 hit in 7 of 9 games against MIA on record

L10 · Under 21.5

Average: 19.4; −2.1 vs line
Median: 16; −5.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −128
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −119 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −129, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6202 books	—	1/10
−2381 book	—	6/10
−1622 books	—	6/10
−1043 books	−1283 books	6/10
+1722 books	—	8/10
+4292 books	—	9/10
+10602 books	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−107	−119Best
FanDuel4 min ago	−104Best	−128
Pinnacle5 min ago	−104Best	−128
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:49 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

Under No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Darius Garland's full game log and splits