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Darius Garland

LA Clippers · G · #10

MIA @ LAC · Tomorrow 10:30 PM
OverUnder21.5
Under 21.5 Points, typical price −1281 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TonightDefense vs guards

    MIA allow 70.4 points a game to guards: 2nd most of 30

    7 games

  • Teammate out

    Jordan Miller: Out (shoulder)

    Under 21.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: 12 of 18 (26 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Bradley Beal: Out (knee)

    Under 21.5 without him: 16 of 26; with him: no games (26 games as teammates)

  • Minutes

    Last 5: 32.4 min · 2025–26: 29.8 (45 games)

Game log against Under 21.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 21.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

  1. vs DAL, 2026-04-07: 22, missed, 28 min
  2. at POR, 2026-04-10: 16, hit, 41 min
  3. vs GS, 2026-04-12: 15, hit, 27 min
  4. vs SAC, 2026-10-21: 30, missed, 32 min
  5. at LAL, 2026-10-23: 26, missed, 37 min
  6. at OKC, 2026-10-25: 16, hit, 36 min
  7. vs LAL, 2026-10-28: 14, hit, 26 min
  8. at MIN, 2026-10-30: 24, missed, 31 min
  9. at GS, 2026-11-01: 15, hit, 33 min
  10. vs TOR, 2026-11-02: 16, hit, 36 min
Under hitMissedThe 21.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 12.3–28.6 points.

Splits

Under 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 10; Under 21.5 hit in 7 of 9 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 21.5 · L10

  • Rui HachimuraF

  • Keaton WaglerG

  • Brook LopezC

  • Jordan MillerGOut

  • Bradley BealGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Clippers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Garland didn't play the Dec 1, 2025 meeting; points the last time Garland faced them: 11 (Nov 10, 2025)

Under 21.5 hit in 7 of 9 games against MIA on record

L10 · Under 21.5

Average
19.4
−2.1 vs line
Median
16
−5.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
56%
at −128
Books’ fair
52%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −128 the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−50001 book—0/10
−6201 book—1/10
−1661 book—6/10
−1041 book−1281 book6/10
+1801 book—8/10
+4501 book—9/10
+10601 book—10/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 21.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 21.5Under 21.5
FanDuel2 min ago−104Best−128Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 10:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

Under No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%
Darius Garland's full game log and splits