Darius Acuff Jr.
SA @ SAC · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Over 23.5
50%4 of 8L8 · Without Raynaud
Over 23.5 Points cleared in 4 of 8 games without Maxime Raynaud (his last 8 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 13.1–35.5 points.
What's different today
Over 23.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Maxime Raynaud: Out (knee)
Over 23.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
TodayGame lines
SAC +15.5 · total 229.5 (6 sportsbooks): a big spread
SAC's games this season closed at 231.9 on average (8 games)
Teammate out
Keegan Murray: Out (ankle)
Over 23.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: 1 of 2 (8 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
SA allow 53.6 points a game to guards: 20th most of 30
8 games
Splits
Over 23.5 · L8 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 23.5 · L8Zach LaVineG
Maxime RaynaudCOut
Domantas SabonisF
Keegan MurrayFOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Kings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs SA
Points: 19 in 33 min, Oct 27 (away)
Over 23.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against SA on record
L8 · Without Raynaud · Over 23.5
- Average
- 25.6
- +2.1 vs line
- Median
- 23.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 4 of 8
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 49%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −104
Research, not a pick. At −106 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −104, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L8 · Without Raynaud| Line | Over | Under | L8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −3601 book | — | 7/8 | |
| −2655 books | — | 6/8 | |
| −1753 books | — | 6/8 | |
| −1145 books | −1184 books | 4/8 | |
| +1032 books | — | 4/8 | |
| +1283 books | — | 3/8 | |
| +1803 books | — | 3/8 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 23.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 23.5 | Under 23.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel1 min ago | −106Best | −125 |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −114 | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −114 | −118 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −114 | −118 |
| DraftKings6 min ago | −116 | −110Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
23.514.5 → 23.5 since first seen