Cooper Flagg
DAL @ SA · Today 9:30 PMGame log against Over 0.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 0.5 Blocks cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 on the road).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 blocks.
What's different today
Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayGame lines
DAL +12.5 · total 226.5 (8 sportsbooks): a big spread
DAL's games this season closed at 232.2 on average (7 games)
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 3; with him: 44 of 73 (76 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 0.5 without him: 44 of 70; with him: 3 of 6 (76 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
SA allow 1.4 blocks a game to forwards: 22nd most of 30
7 games
Splits
Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 0.5 · L10Kyrie IrvingG
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs SA
Flagg didn't play the Oct 24 meeting; blocks the last time Flagg faced them: 0 (Apr 10)
Over 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against SA on record
L10 · Over 0.5
- Average
- 0.7
- +0.2 vs line
- Median
- 1
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 61%
- at −157
- Books’ fair
- 56%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 60%
- estimate · fair −149
Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −149, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1576 books | +1132 books | 6/10 | |
| +2956 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +8503 books | — | 0/10 | |
| +24001 book | — | 0/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings4 min ago | −150Best | +113 |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −157 | — |
| betPARX3 min ago | −157 | +114Best |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −157 | — |
| FanDuel3 min ago | −188 | — |
| Bovada4 min ago | −192 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:27 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
0.5−188 → −157 since first seen


