Cooper Flagg

Dallas Mavericks · F · #32

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1221 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightGame lines
DAL +12.5 · total 229.5 (4 sportsbooks): a big spread
DAL's games this season closed at 232.2 on average (7 games)
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Under 1.5 without him: 2 of 3; with him: 52 of 73 (76 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Under 1.5 without him: 50 of 70; with him: 4 of 6 (76 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
SA allow 4.1 threes made a game to forwards: 22nd most of 30
7 games

60%6 of 10L10

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

at LAC, 2026-04-07: 1, hit, 34 min
at PHX, 2026-04-08: 0, hit, 32 min
at SA, 2026-04-10: 3, missed, 32 min
vs CHI, 2026-04-12: 0, hit, 10 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 33 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 17 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 2, missed, 40 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 33 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 39 min
vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 40 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Kyrie IrvingG
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Flagg didn't play the Oct 24 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Flagg faced them: 3 (Apr 10)

Under 1.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against SA on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −122
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −138

Research, not a pick. At −122 the price beats our fair −138, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5201 book	—	4/10
−1081 book	−1221 book	6/10
+2901 book	—	9/10
+8001 book	—	10/10
+20001 book	—	10/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−108Best	−122Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:07 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under −125 → −122 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Cooper Flagg's full game log and splits