Cameron Johnson

Denver Nuggets · F · #23

POR @ DENTrail Blazers @ Nuggets · Today 9:00 PM ET

The line

Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made

−1577 sportsbooksbest −155

Game log

Over 1.5

Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs POR: 1, missed
vs MEM: 2, cleared
vs MIN: 2, cleared
vs MIN: 1, missed
at MIN: 0, missed
at MIN: 1, missed
vs MIN: 2, cleared
at MIN: 5, cleared
at OKC: 1, missed
at PHX: 2, cleared

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 3-pointers made.

Home and away

L10 · Over 1.5

Hometonight

60%

3 of 5

Away

40%

2 of 5

L10 · Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made

Average: 1.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 61%; −157, 7 sportsbooks
Market’s fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −155

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −155, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet2 hr ago	−155Best	—
betPARX2 hr ago	−155Best	+115
FanDuel2 hr ago	−156	+122
BetRivers2 hr ago	−157	+114
Pinnacle2 hr ago	−157	+118
DraftKings2 hr ago	−163	+123
Bovada2 hr ago	−165	+125Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price