Brook Lopez

LA Clippers · C · #11

MIA @ LAC · Tomorrow 10:30 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Rebounds, typical price −1661 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jordan Miller: Out (shoulder)
Over 4.5 without him: 4 of 15; with him: 25 of 58 (73 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Bradley Beal: Out (knee)
Over 4.5 without him: 29 of 76; with him: 1 of 6 (82 games as teammates)
Defense vs centers
MIA allow 8.3 rebounds a game to centers: 20th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 21.4 min · 2025–26: 21.8 (75 games)

60%6 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Rebounds cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs OKC, 2026-04-08: 6, cleared, 30 min
at POR, 2026-04-10: 6, cleared, 36 min
vs GS, 2026-04-12: 8, cleared, 23 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-21: 11, cleared, 27 min
at LAL, 2026-10-23: 4, missed, 20 min
at OKC, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 23 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 22 min
at MIN, 2026-10-30: 6, cleared, 21 min
at GS, 2026-11-01: 2, missed, 19 min
vs TOR, 2026-11-02: 6, cleared, 22 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1.6–9 rebounds.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 1 of 5 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L10

Darius GarlandG
Rui HachimuraF
Keaton WaglerG
Jordan MillerGOut
Bradley BealGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Clippers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Lopez didn't play the Dec 1, 2025 meeting; rebounds the last time Lopez faced them: 1 (Nov 3, 2025)

Over 4.5 hit in 1 of 5 games against MIA on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 5.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 6; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −166
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −154

Research, not a pick. At −166 the price is worse than our fair −154, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3501 book	—	7/10
−1661 book	+1241 book	6/10
+1241 book	pick'em only	6/10
+4001 book	—	2/10
+10001 book	—	1/10
+30001 book	—	0/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
FanDuel1 min ago	−166Best	+124Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:34 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over −162 → −166 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Brook Lopez's full game log and splits