Brayden Burries

Milwaukee Bucks · G · #0

MIL @ BOS · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Rebounds, typical price −1461 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs guards
BOS allow 14.0 rebounds a game to guards: 24th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 19.4 min · 2026–27: 17.3 (7 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at MIN
Game lines
MIL +11.5 · total 223.5 (9 sportsbooks)
MIL's games this season closed at 235.6 on average (7 games)

57%4 of 7L7

Over 4.5 Rebounds cleared in 4 of his last 7 games (3 of 3 on the road).

at WSH, 2026-10-21: 5, cleared, 16 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 8 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 5, cleared, 17 min
vs IND, 2026-10-26: 2, missed, 16 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-28: 5, cleared, 17 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 21 min
at MIN, 2026-11-02: 9, cleared, 26 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–8 rebounds.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L7 · counts, not in order

No game against BOS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L7

Tyler HerroG
Kevin Porter Jr.G
Ryan RollinsG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bucks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BOS

Burries didn't play the Apr 3 meeting

L7 · Over 4.5

Average: 4.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 5; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 4 of 7
Price implies: 59%; at −146
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −118

Research, not a pick. At −146 the price is worse than our fair −118, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L7

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L7
−3101 book	—	4/7
−1461 book	+1101 book	4/7
+1361 book	—	1/7
+4501 book	—	1/7
+12001 book	—	0/7
+30001 book	—	0/7

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−146Best	+110Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:49 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−136 → −146 since first seen

Brayden Burries's full game log and splits