Brandin Podziemski

Golden State Warriors · G · #2

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under16.5

Over 16.5 Points, typical price −1081 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

70%14 of 20L20 · Without Butler

Over 16.5 Points cleared in 14 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

at BOS, 2026-03-18: 10, missed, 28 min
at DET, 2026-03-20: 15, missed, 30 min
at ATL, 2026-03-21: 5, missed, 24 min
at DAL, 2026-03-23: 20, cleared, 40 min
vs BKN, 2026-03-25: 22, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-27: 22, cleared, 33 min
at DEN, 2026-03-29: 23, cleared, 32 min
vs SA, 2026-04-01: 14, missed, 17 min
vs CLE, 2026-04-02: 25, cleared, 35 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 18, cleared, 37 min
vs SAC, 2026-04-07: 20, cleared, 30 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-09: 17, cleared, 24 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 30, cleared, 32 min
at LAC, 2026-04-12: 10, missed, 21 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 18, cleared, 33 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 18, cleared, 33 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 8, missed, 32 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 21, cleared, 33 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 17, cleared, 37 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 20, cleared, 33 min

ClearedMissedThe 16.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different today

Over 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 16.5 without him: 22 of 50; with him: 10 of 43 (93 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs guards
MIA allow 69.0 points a game to guards: 2nd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 16.5 without him: 12 of 20; with him: 9 of 15 (35 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 16.5 without him: 17 of 28; with him: 15 of 65 (93 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 16.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 20; Over 16.5 cleared in 2 of 4 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 16.5 · L20

Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Points: 24 in 30 min, Jan 19 (home)

Over 16.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Over 16.5

Average: 17.7; +1.1 vs line
Median: 18; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 14 of 20
Price implies: 52%; at −108
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Minutes: 31; 20 games · 28.5 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 16.5 49%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−3921 book	—	16/20
−1722 books	—	15/20
−1592 books	+1002 books	14/20
−1081 book	−1181 book	14/20
+1221 book	—	12/20
+1902 books	—	9/20
+5622 books	—	2/20

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
DraftKings6 min ago	−108Best	−118Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:33 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

15.5 → 16.5 since first seen

Brandin Podziemski's full game log and splits