Aday Mara

Oklahoma City Thunder · C · #15

CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under6.5

Under 6.5 Rebounds, typical price −1121 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 6.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 6.5 without him: 1 of 4; with him: 3 of 3 (7 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs centers
CLE allow 14.0 rebounds a game to centers: 2nd most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 6.5 without him: 1 of 4; with him: 3 of 3 (7 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 6.5 without him: 1 of 4; with him: 3 of 3 (7 games as teammates)

25%1 of 4L7 · Without Williams

Under 6.5 Rebounds hit in 1 of 4 games without Jalen Williams (his last 7 games).

at SA, 2026-10-20: 2, hit, 12 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 3, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 3, hit, 14 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 10, missed, 20 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 3, hit, 21 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 9, missed, 28 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 9, missed, 20 min

Under hitMissedThe 6.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0.9–10 rebounds.

Splits

Under 6.5 · L7 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 6.5 · L7

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Rebounds: 9 in 20 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 6.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against CLE on record

L7 · Without Williams · Under 6.5

Average: 7.8; +1.3 vs line
Median: 9; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 25%; 1 of 4
Price implies: 53%; at −112
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −115

Research, not a pick. At −112 the price beats our fair −115, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L7 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L7
−7701 book	—	1/4
−1961 book	—	1/4
−1181 book	−1121 book	1/4
+1441 book	—	1/4
+3101 book	—	3/4
+7501 book	—	4/4
+15001 book	—	4/4

Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 6.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 6.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
FanDuel4 min ago	−118Best	−112Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

6.5

−118 → −112 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Aday Mara's full game log and splits