Aday Mara

Oklahoma City Thunder · C · #15

CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under14.5

Under 14.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1021 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 14.5 without him: 1 of 4; with him: 3 of 3 (7 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 14.5 without him: 1 of 4; with him: 3 of 3 (7 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 14.5 without him: 1 of 4; with him: 3 of 3 (7 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 20.6 min · 2026–27: 18.3 (7 games)

25%1 of 4L7 · Without Williams

Under 14.5 Pts+Reb hit in 1 of 4 games without Jalen Williams (his last 7 games).

at SA, 2026-10-20: 9, hit, 12 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 5, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 5, hit, 14 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 21, missed, 20 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 9, hit, 21 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 16, missed, 28 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 19, missed, 20 min

Under hitMissedThe 14.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 5.5–22.4 pts+reb.

Splits

Under 14.5 · L7 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 14.5 · L7

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Pts+Reb: 19 in 20 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 14.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against CLE on record

L7 · Without Williams · Under 14.5

Average: 16.3; +1.8 vs line
Median: 17.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 25%; 1 of 4
Price implies: 50%; at −102
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair −100

Research, not a pick. At −102 the price is worse than our fair −100, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L7 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L7
	−1301 book	−1021 book	1/4

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 14.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 14.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 14.5	Under 14.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−130Best	−102Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

14.5

No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Aday Mara's full game log and splits