Ace Bailey

Utah Jazz · G · #19

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Rebounds, typical price −1216 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

63%10 of 16L20 · Without Jackson

Over 5.5 Rebounds cleared in 10 of 16 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

vs MIL, 2026-03-19: 9, cleared, 34 min
vs PHI, 2026-03-21: 7, cleared, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-03-23: 6, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-25: 5, missed, 29 min
at DEN, 2026-03-27: 7, cleared, 27 min
at PHX, 2026-03-28: 6, cleared, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-30: 2, missed, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-01: 1, missed, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-04-03: 6, cleared, 33 min
at OKC, 2026-04-05: 4, missed, 33 min
vs MEM, 2026-04-10: 10, cleared, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-04-12: 3, missed, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 5, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 7, cleared, 22 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 12, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 10, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 6, cleared, 40 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 7, cleared, 37 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 6, cleared, 24 min
at NO, 2026-11-04: 5, missed, 35 min

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2.9–9.9 rebounds.

What's different today

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Jaren Jackson Jr. playing; Jackson is out today. Without him: Over 5.5 in 15 of 28.

TodayTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 5.5 without him: 15 of 28; with him: 4 of 7 (35 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 5.5 without him: 20 of 42; with him: 7 of 38 (80 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
DAL allow 15.5 rebounds a game to guards: 13th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34 min · 2026–27: 30.6 (8 games)

Splits

Over 5.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 20; Over 5.5 cleared in 1 of 3 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 5.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Rebounds: 8 in 37 min, Jan 17 (away)

Over 5.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against DAL on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 5.5

Average: 5.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 6; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 10 of 16
Price implies: 55%; at −121
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −132

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −132, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−11601 book	—	14/16
−4805 books	—	13/16
−2101 book	—	12/16
−1216 books	−1145 books	10/16
+1631 book	—	5/16
+2355 books	—	2/16
+4861 book	—	2/16

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
DraftKings4 min ago	−110Best	−119
Pinnacle4 min ago	−112	−118
FanDuel4 min ago	−114	−114
Bally Bet4 min ago	−121	—
betPARX5 min ago	−121	−112Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−121	−112Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:00 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Over: −118 → −121 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Ace Bailey's full game log and splits