Ace Bailey

Utah Jazz · G · #19

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under14.5

Over 14.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1345 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

81%13 of 16L20 · Without Jackson

Over 14.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 13 of 16 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

vs MIL, 2026-03-19: 37, cleared, 34 min
vs PHI, 2026-03-21: 29, cleared, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-03-23: 40, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-25: 18, cleared, 29 min
at DEN, 2026-03-27: 16, cleared, 27 min
at PHX, 2026-03-28: 15, cleared, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-30: 24, cleared, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-01: 14, missed, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-04-03: 23, cleared, 33 min
at OKC, 2026-04-05: 16, cleared, 33 min
vs MEM, 2026-04-10: 25, cleared, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-04-12: 16, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 15, cleared, 24 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 8, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 21, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 20, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 19, cleared, 40 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 10, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 7, missed, 24 min
at NO, 2026-11-04: 16, cleared, 35 min

ClearedMissedThe 14.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 8.6–28.2 pts+ast.

What's different today

Over 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Jaren Jackson Jr. playing; Jackson is out today. Without him: Over 14.5 in 22 of 28.

TodayTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 14.5 without him: 22 of 28; with him: 5 of 7 (35 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 14.5 without him: 31 of 42; with him: 15 of 38 (80 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 34 min · 2026–27: 30.6 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at NO
3rd straight road game

Splits

Over 14.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 20; Over 14.5 cleared in 2 of 3 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 14.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Pts+Ast: 19 in 37 min, Jan 17 (away)

Over 14.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against DAL on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 14.5

Average: 20.3; +5.8 vs line
Median: 17; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 81%; 13 of 16
Price implies: 57%; at −134
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −161

Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −161, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−5311 book	—	15/16
−1345 books	−1052 books	13/16
−1053 books	−1291 book	12/16
+2354 books	—	6/16
+7901 book	—	4/16
+20001 book	—	2/16

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 14.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 14.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 14.5	Under 14.5
DraftKings7 min ago	−125Best	−105
FanDuel2 min ago	−130	−102Best
Bally Bet7 min ago	−134	—
betPARX3 min ago	−134	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−134	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:20 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

14.5

−130 → −134 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Ace Bailey's full game log and splits