Ace Bailey

Utah Jazz · G · #19

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under7.5

Over 7.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1344 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

56%9 of 16L20 · Without Jackson

Over 7.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 9 of 16 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

vs MIL, 2026-03-19: 13, cleared, 34 min
vs PHI, 2026-03-21: 11, cleared, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-03-23: 9, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-25: 8, cleared, 29 min
at DEN, 2026-03-27: 8, cleared, 27 min
at PHX, 2026-03-28: 8, cleared, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-30: 7, missed, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-01: 3, missed, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-04-03: 7, missed, 33 min
at OKC, 2026-04-05: 6, missed, 33 min
vs MEM, 2026-04-10: 12, cleared, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-04-12: 4, missed, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 8, cleared, 24 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 9, cleared, 22 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 16, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 13, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 6, missed, 40 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 8, cleared, 37 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 8, cleared, 24 min
at NO, 2026-11-04: 6, missed, 35 min

ClearedMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 4.4–12.8 reb+ast.

What's different today

Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

4 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Jaren Jackson Jr. playing; Jackson is out today. Without him: Over 7.5 in 14 of 28.

TodayTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 7.5 without him: 14 of 28; with him: 6 of 7 (35 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 7.5 without him: 20 of 42; with him: 11 of 38 (80 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 34 min · 2026–27: 30.6 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at NO
3rd straight road game

Splits

Over 7.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 20; Over 7.5 cleared in 2 of 3 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 7.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Reb+Ast: 9 in 37 min, Jan 17 (away)

Over 7.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against DAL on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 7.5

Average: 7.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 8; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 56%; 9 of 16
Price implies: 57%; at −134
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −140, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	−1344 books	−1142 books	9/16
	+1853 books	—	3/16

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
FanDuel4 min ago	−118Best	−114
Bally Bet5 min ago	−134	—
betPARX4 min ago	−134	+100Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−134	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:16 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

Over: −114 → −134 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Ace Bailey's full game log and splits