Ace Bailey

Utah Jazz · G · #19

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under18.5

Over 18.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1216 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

69%11 of 16L20 · Without Jackson

Over 18.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 11 of 16 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

vs MIL, 2026-03-19: 42, cleared, 34 min
vs PHI, 2026-03-21: 32, cleared, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-03-23: 43, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-25: 20, cleared, 29 min
at DEN, 2026-03-27: 22, cleared, 27 min
at PHX, 2026-03-28: 19, cleared, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-30: 21, cleared, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-01: 13, missed, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-04-03: 28, cleared, 33 min
at OKC, 2026-04-05: 18, missed, 33 min
vs MEM, 2026-04-10: 33, cleared, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-04-12: 18, missed, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 17, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 13, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 29, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 27, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 25, cleared, 40 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 16, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 11, missed, 24 min
at NO, 2026-11-04: 20, cleared, 35 min

ClearedMissedThe 18.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 12.4–32.6 pts+reb.

What's different today

Over 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 18.5 without him: 19 of 28; with him: 3 of 7 (35 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 18.5 without him: 27 of 42; with him: 9 of 38 (80 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 34 min · 2026–27: 30.6 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at NO
3rd straight road game

Splits

Over 18.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 20; Over 18.5 cleared in 2 of 3 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 18.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Pts+Reb: 26 in 37 min, Jan 17 (away)

Over 18.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against DAL on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 18.5

Average: 23.8; +5.3 vs line
Median: 20.5; +2 vs line
Hit rate: 69%; 11 of 16
Price implies: 55%; at −121
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −138

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −138, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−16401 book	—	16/16
−3354 books	—	14/16
−1451 book	+1101 book	13/16
−1216 books	−1154 books	11/16
+1025 books	−1451 book	10/16
+2804 books	—	6/16
+8501 book	—	4/16

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 18.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 18.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 18.5	Under 18.5
Bovada7 min ago	−115Best	−115
DraftKings7 min ago	−115Best	−115
FanDuel2 min ago	−118	−112Best
Bally Bet7 min ago	−121	—
betPARX2 min ago	−121	−112Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−121	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

18.5

Over: −122 → −121 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Ace Bailey's full game log and splits