Ace Bailey

Utah Jazz · G · #19

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under12.5

Over 12.5 Points, typical price −1275 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

81%13 of 16L20 · Without Jackson

Over 12.5 Points cleared in 13 of 16 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

vs MIL, 2026-03-19: 33, cleared, 34 min
vs PHI, 2026-03-21: 25, cleared, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-03-23: 37, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-25: 15, cleared, 29 min
at DEN, 2026-03-27: 15, cleared, 27 min
at PHX, 2026-03-28: 13, cleared, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-30: 19, cleared, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-01: 12, missed, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-04-03: 22, cleared, 33 min
at OKC, 2026-04-05: 14, cleared, 33 min
vs MEM, 2026-04-10: 23, cleared, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-04-12: 15, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 12, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 6, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 17, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 17, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 19, cleared, 40 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 9, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 5, missed, 24 min
at NO, 2026-11-04: 15, cleared, 35 min

ClearedMissedThe 12.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 6.8–25.7 points.

What's different today

Over 12.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 12.5 without him: 21 of 28; with him: 4 of 7 (35 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 12.5 without him: 29 of 42; with him: 16 of 38 (80 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
DAL allow 59.0 points a game to guards: 10th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34 min · 2026–27: 30.6 (8 games)

Splits

Over 12.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 20; Over 12.5 cleared in 2 of 3 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 12.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Points: 18 in 37 min, Jan 17 (away)

Over 12.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against DAL on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 12.5

Average: 18.2; +5.7 vs line
Median: 15; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 81%; 13 of 16
Price implies: 56%; at −127
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −157

Research, not a pick. At −127 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −157, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−6501 book	—	15/16
−2955 books	—	14/16
−1654 books	—	14/16
−1275 books	−1074 books	13/16
+1024 books	−1211 book	12/16
+1202 books	—	11/16
+1653 books	—	7/16

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 12.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 12.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 12.5	Under 12.5
Bally Bet14 min ago	−127Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	−127Best	−107
BetRivers4 min ago	−127Best	−107
FanDuel5 min ago	−130	−102
Pinnacle14 min ago	−134	+101Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:49 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

12.5

Over: −130 → −127 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Ace Bailey's full game log and splits