Ace Bailey

Utah Jazz · G · #19

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Assists, typical price −2155 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

63%10 of 16L20 · Without Jackson

Over 1.5 Assists cleared in 10 of 16 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

vs MIL, 2026-03-19: 4, cleared, 34 min
vs PHI, 2026-03-21: 4, cleared, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-03-23: 3, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-25: 3, cleared, 29 min
at DEN, 2026-03-27: 1, missed, 27 min
at PHX, 2026-03-28: 2, cleared, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-30: 5, cleared, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-01: 2, cleared, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-04-03: 1, missed, 33 min
at OKC, 2026-04-05: 2, cleared, 33 min
vs MEM, 2026-04-10: 2, cleared, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-04-12: 1, missed, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 3, cleared, 24 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 2, cleared, 22 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 4, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 3, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 40 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 24 min
at NO, 2026-11-04: 1, missed, 35 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 assists.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 17 of 28; with him: 7 of 7 (35 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 1.5 without him: 24 of 42; with him: 22 of 38 (80 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
DAL allow 16.1 assists a game to guards: 13th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34 min · 2026–27: 30.6 (8 games)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 20; Over 1.5 cleared in 2 of 3 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Assists: 1 in 37 min, Jan 17 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against DAL on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 1.5

Average: 2.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 10 of 16
Price implies: 68%; at −215
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −166

Research, not a pick. At −162 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −166, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−11153 books	—	15/16
−2155 books	+1291 book	10/16
+1334 books	−1822 books	5/16
+3205 books	—	3/16
+6503 books	—	1/16
+19801 book	—	0/16

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−162Best	—
DraftKings14 min ago	−171	+129Best
Bally Bet14 min ago	−215	—
betPARX6 min ago	−225	—
BetRivers6 min ago	−225	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:18 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −160 → −215 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Ace Bailey's full game log and splits