Federico Viñas

Toluca · F · #9

TOL v MTY · Sat, Nov 7 8:00 PM

Over only4.5

Over 4.5 Shots, typical price +1351 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

20%2 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Shots cleared in 2 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 at home).

at QRO (Liga MX), 2026-08-21: 7, cleared
vs JUA (Liga MX), 2026-08-30: 3, missed
vs ATS (Liga MX), 2026-09-12: 3, missed
at PUE (Liga MX), 2026-09-15: 2, missed
vs SAN (Liga MX), 2026-09-20: 3, missed
at UANL (Liga MX), 2026-10-09: 3, missed
vs ASL (Liga MX), 2026-10-17: 4, missed
vs TIJ (Liga MX), 2026-10-21: 5, cleared
at LEO (Liga MX), 2026-10-24: 3, missed
at AME (Liga MX), 2026-10-31: 2, missed

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 line

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 3.5; −1 vs line
Median: 3; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 20%; 2 of 10
Price implies: 43%; at +135
Books’ fair: —; no Under posted

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price of the Over and how many sportsbooks price it. No Under is posted.
Line	Over	L10
	−14001 book	10/10
	−4001 book	8/10
	−1601 book	3/10
	+1351 book	2/10
	+2851 book	1/10
	+6001 book	1/10
	+12001 book	0/10

Over only: sportsbooks post this as a yes bet (“5+ shots”), with no Under to take.

Compare 1 sportsbook at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over 4.5 Shots, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5
DraftKings11 min ago	+135Best

Prices as of 4:02 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over: No move since first seen

Federico Viñas's full game log and splits