Paul Smyth
MIL v QPR · Sat, Nov 21 7:30 AMOver only0.5
Over 0.5 Shots on Target, typical price −1502 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated
Game log against Over 0.5
Historical hit rate
60%6 of 10L10
Over 0.5 Shots on Target cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).
Games counted
Game log L10vs LCNShots on Target1Hit
Game-by-game results 10 games · 2026-09-09 – 2026-11-07
Past results describe this sample; they are not a forecast.
| Date | Opponent | Shots on Target | Workload | At 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | vs LCN | 1 | — | Hit |
| 2026-11-03 | vs BUR | 1 | — | Hit |
| 2026-10-31 | @ SOU | 1 | — | Hit |
| 2026-10-24 | vs SWA | 0 | — | Miss |
| 2026-10-17 | @ BIR | 0 | — | Miss |
| 2026-10-14 | vs DER | 1 | — | Hit |
| 2026-10-09 | @ WHU | 0 | — | Miss |
| 2026-09-19 | vs PNE | 1 | — | Hit |
| 2026-09-12 | @ WBA | 0 | — | Miss |
| 2026-09-09 | @ CHA | 1 | — | Hit |
L10 · Over 0.5
Historical results
- Average
- 0.6
- +0.1 vs line
- Median
- 1
- +0.5 vs line
- Past hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
Price and estimates
- Break-even chance
- 60%
- at −150
- Market estimate
- —
- no Under posted
What do these numbers mean?
- Past hit rate
- How often this line cleared in the games you selected. It describes those games, not the chance of the next one.
- Break-even chance
- The chance needed to break even at the displayed price over time.
- Market estimate
- The sportsbooks' estimated chance with their margin removed. It needs prices on both sides.
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | L10 |
|---|---|---|
| −1502 books | 6/10 |
Over only: sportsbooks post this as a yes bet (“1+ shots on target”), with no Under to take.
Compare 2 sportsbooks at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −150Best |
| BetRivers6 min ago | −150Best |
Prices as of 12:57 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
Line movementMain line 0.5
No opening line kept for this market yet.

