Santiago Castro

AS Roma · F · #9

ROMA v SAS · Tomorrow 2:45 PM

Over only3.5

Over 3.5 Shots, typical price −1483 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

20%2 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Shots cleared in 2 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

vs FIO (Serie A), 2026-08-24: 1, missed
at LEC (Serie A), 2026-08-31: 1, missed
vs ATA (Serie A), 2026-09-05: 4, cleared
at TOR (Serie A), 2026-09-14: 1, missed
vs GEN (Serie A), 2026-10-17: 4, cleared
vs SLB (Champions League), 2026-10-20: 3, missed
at NAP (Serie A), 2026-10-24: 2, missed
vs CAG (Serie A), 2026-10-27: 2, missed
at UDI (Serie A), 2026-10-31: 0, missed
at MAN (Champions League), 2026-11-03: 0, missed

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 lineUCL Champions League · unmarked: Serie A

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 1.8; −1.7 vs line
Median: 1.5; −2 vs line
Hit rate: 20%; 2 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −148
Books’ fair: —; no Under posted

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price of the Over and how many sportsbooks price it. No Under is posted.
Line	Over	L10
	−13003 books	5/10
	−3753 books	3/10
	−1483 books	2/10
	+1503 books	0/10
	+3103 books	0/10
	+6502 books	0/10
	+14002 books	0/10

Over only: sportsbooks post this as a yes bet (“4+ shots”), with no Under to take.

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over 3.5 Shots, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5
DraftKings9 min ago	−145Best
Bovada8 min ago	−148
FanDuel9 min ago	−220

Prices as of 12:14 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

−135 → −148 since first seen

Santiago Castro's full game log and splits