Rafael Nel

Sporting CP · F · #90

SCP v MFC · Sat, Nov 7 3:30 PM

Over only0.5

Over 0.5 Goals, typical price +1235 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

20%2 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Goals cleared in 2 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 at home).

vs FCF (Primeira Liga), 2026-02-15: 0, missed
at ALV (Primeira Liga), 2026-03-22: 0, missed
vs CDSC (Primeira Liga), 2026-04-03: 1, cleared
vs ARS (Champions League), 2026-04-07: 0, missed
at EST (Primeira Liga), 2026-04-11: 0, missed
at ARS (Champions League), 2026-04-15: 0, missed
vs SLB (Primeira Liga), 2026-04-19: 0, missed
at AVS (Primeira Liga), 2026-04-26: 1, cleared
at RAFC (Primeira Liga), 2026-05-11: 0, missed
vs ALV (Primeira Liga), 2026-08-22: 0, missed

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineUCL Champions League · unmarked: Primeira Liga

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 20%; 2 of 10
Price implies: 45%; at +123
Books’ fair: —; no Under posted

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price of the Over and how many sportsbooks price it. No Under is posted.
Line	Over	L10
	+1235 books	2/10
	+6004 books	0/10
	+22001 book	0/10

Over only: sportsbooks post this as a yes bet (“to score”), with no Under to take.

Compare 5 sportsbooks at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over 0.5 Goals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5
Bally Bet8 min ago	+123Best
betPARX8 min ago	+123Best
BetRivers8 min ago	+123Best
Bovada7 min ago	+105
DraftKings8 min ago	−105

Prices as of 10:47 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: +105 → +123 since first seen

Rafael Nel's full game log and splits