Wyatt Johnston

Dallas Stars · C · #53

SJ @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Points, typical price −2406 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

64%9 of 14L20 · Without Duchene

Under 1.5 Points hit in 9 of 14 games without Matt Duchene (his last 20 games).

vs MIN, 2026-04-18: 1, hit, 21.7 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 2, missed, 19.4 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-22: 2, missed, 30.2 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 24.5 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-28: 0, hit, 23.8 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 1, hit, 23.4 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 21.8 min
at NSH, 2026-10-03: 1, hit, 22.8 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-05: 0, hit, 16.8 min
at BUF, 2026-10-08: 3, missed, 16.7 min
at PIT, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 21.3 min
at CHI, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 20.4 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 20.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-22: 2, missed, 19.9 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 20.3 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 20.7 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 21.7 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 19.8 min
at WSH, 2026-11-03: 2, missed, 16.2 min
at CBJ, 2026-11-05: 1, hit, 19.3 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Matt Duchene: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Under 1.5 without him: 27 of 39; with him: 54 of 74 (113 games as teammates)
TodayOpposing goalie
Alex Nedeljkovic (Expected)
Saves: 270 of 299 (.903) over his last 10 games · 3 of SJ's last 10 starts · Yaroslav Askarov started 7
Teammate out
Miro Heiskanen: Out (upper body)
Under 1.5 without him: 6 of 6; with him: 72 of 104 (110 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Oskar Back: Injured Reserve (finger)
Under 1.5 without him: 18 of 25; with him: 63 of 88 (113 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Mikko RantanenRW
Jason RobertsonLW
Matt DucheneCInjured Reserve
Miro HeiskanenDOut
Oskar BackCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Stars count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SJ

Points: 0 in 16.8 min, Oct 5 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 7 games against SJ on record

L20 · Without Duchene · Under 1.5

Average: 1; −0.5 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 64%; 9 of 14
Price implies: 71%; at −240
Books’ fair: 66%; margin removed
Our chance: 68%; estimate · fair −210

Research, not a pick. At −240 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −210, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Duchene

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2755 books	pick'em only	6/14
+1656 books	−2402 books	9/14
+5105 books	—	13/14

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings7 min ago	+175	−240Best
Pinnacle7 min ago	+175	−240Best
Bally Bet7 min ago	+165	—
betPARX7 min ago	+165	—
BetRivers7 min ago	+165	—
FanDuel6 min ago	+200Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

Wyatt Johnston's full game log and splits