Wyatt Johnston

Dallas Stars · C · #53

DAL @ WSH · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1656 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Matt Duchene: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Over 0.5 without him: 21 of 37; with him: 45 of 75 (112 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Oskar Back: Injured Reserve (finger)
Over 0.5 without him: 13 of 23; with him: 53 of 89 (112 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Logan Thompson (Confirmed)
Saves: 253 of 279 (.907) over his last 10 games · 7 of WSH's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
WSH allow 6.69 points a game to forwards: 12th most of 32
13 games · last 10 games: 7.10, 7th most

50%6 of 12L20 · Without Duchene

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 6 of 12 games without Matt Duchene (his last 20 games).

at TOR, 2026-04-13: 1, cleared, 18.4 min (not counted)
at BUF, 2026-04-15: 0, missed, 18.2 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-18: 1, cleared, 21.7 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 2, cleared, 19.4 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-22: 2, cleared, 30.2 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 0, missed, 24.5 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-28: 0, missed, 23.8 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 1, cleared, 23.4 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2026-10-02: 0, missed, 21.8 min
at NSH, 2026-10-03: 1, cleared, 22.8 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-05: 0, missed, 16.8 min
at BUF, 2026-10-08: 3, cleared, 16.7 min
at PIT, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 21.3 min
at CHI, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 20.4 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 20.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-22: 2, cleared, 19.9 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 20.3 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-27: 0, missed, 20.7 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-29: 2, cleared, 21.7 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 19.8 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 points.

Count only

Over 0.5 · L20

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Mikko RantanenRW
Jason RobertsonLW
Matt DucheneCInjured Reserve
Oskar BackCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Stars count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Points: 1 in 21.8 min, Jan 7 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against WSH on record

L20 · Without Duchene · Over 0.5

Average: 0.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 6 of 12
Price implies: 62%; at −165
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −136, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Duchene

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−1656 books	+1302 books	6/12
+3005 books	—	4/12
+9312 books	—	1/12

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−155Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	−155Best	—
BetRivers1 min ago	−155Best	—
DraftKings6 min ago	−175	+130Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	−175	+130Best
FanDuel1 min ago	−196	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over −215 → −165 since first seen

Wyatt Johnston's full game log and splits