William Karlsson

Vegas Golden Knights · C · #71

VGK @ DET · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −1755 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at NSH, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 15.4 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 17.1 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 13.9 min
vs TB, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 16 min
at STL, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 16.6 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 16.8 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 20.1 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 16.9 min
at BOS, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 19.4 min
at PIT, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 18.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Daniil Tarasov (Expected)
Saves: 210 of 227 (.925) over his last 10 games · 4 of DET's last 10 starts · John Gibson started 5
Teammate out
Parker Wotherspoon: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 0.5 without him: 6 of 11; with him: 5 of 6 (17 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
DET allow 6.50 points a game to forwards: 14th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 5.90, 20th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 18.3 min · 2026–27: 17.5 (17 games)
Power play: 1 min last 5 · 1.3 2026–27

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 3 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Mitch MarnerRW
Victor OlofssonLW
Jack EichelC
Parker WotherspoonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Golden Knights count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Karlsson didn't play the Mar 4 meeting; points the last time Karlsson faced them: 0 (Nov 4, 2025)

Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 3 games against DET on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −175
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −167

Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −167, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1305 books	−1752 books	6/10
	+6004 books	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle10 min ago	+125	−170Best
DraftKings10 min ago	+130Best	−175
Bally Bet10 min ago	+130Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	+130Best	—
BetRivers4 min ago	+130Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:49 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under: −165 → −175 since first seen

William Karlsson's full game log and splits