Will Smith

San Jose Sharks · C · #2

SJ @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1957 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L20 · Without Wennberg

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of 10 games without Alexander Wennberg (his last 20 games).

at CHI, 2026-04-15: 0, hit, 17 min (not counted)
at WPG, 2026-04-16: 5, missed, 13.6 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-01: 3, missed, 20.2 min (not counted)
vs LA, 2026-10-03: 2, hit, 18.7 min (not counted)
at DAL, 2026-10-05: 0, hit, 18.5 min (not counted)
at STL, 2026-10-08: 1, hit, 15.6 min (not counted)
vs EDM, 2026-10-10: 1, hit, 20.2 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2026-10-13: 4, missed, 20.8 min (not counted)
at NSH, 2026-10-15: 5, missed, 19.8 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-10-17: 4, missed, 25.2 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-10-19: 4, missed, 22.1 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 18.8 min
at OTT, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 16.9 min
at BOS, 2026-10-24: 5, missed, 20.2 min
vs BUF, 2026-10-27: 2, hit, 16.3 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-29: 3, missed, 17.7 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 17.2 min
vs CGY, 2026-11-02: 2, hit, 18.4 min
at LA, 2026-11-04: 0, hit, 21 min
at MIN, 2026-11-06: 2, hit, 21.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Alexander Wennberg: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 2.5 without him: 6 of 11; with him: 41 of 76 (87 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs forwards
DAL allow 16.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: the fewest of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 16.6, 30th most
TodayRest · back-to-back
Sharks played the day before (at MIN): a back-to-back
3rd straight road game
Teammate out
Igor Chernyshov: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 2.5 without him: 16 of 28; with him: 13 of 26 (54 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L20

Macklin CelebriniC
Alexander WennbergCInjured Reserve
Jacob TroubaD
Igor ChernyshovLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Sharks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Shots on Goal: 0 in 18.5 min, Oct 5 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against DAL on record

L20 · Without Wennberg · Under 2.5

Average: 2.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −195
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −139

Research, not a pick. At −177 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −139, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Wennberg

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−13002 books	—	1/10
−2202 books	pick'em only	2/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	2/10
+1457 books	−1955 books	5/10
+3603 books	—	8/10
+8501 book	—	8/10
+20001 book	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	+125	−177Best
betPARX5 min ago	+125	−177Best
DraftKings5 min ago	+145	−195
FanDuel4 min ago	+148	−196
Pinnacle5 min ago	+157Best	−213
BetRivers5 min ago	+125	—
Bovada5 min ago	+150	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Will Smith's full game log and splits