Viktor Arvidsson

Detroit Red Wings · LW · #33

DET @ TB · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −2287 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Under 0.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: 6 of 10 (15 games as teammates)
TonightRest · back-to-back
Red Wings played last night (at FLA): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Under 0.5 without him: 9 of 15; with him: no games (15 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Albert Johansson: Out (undisclosed)
Under 0.5 without him: 1 of 4; with him: 8 of 11 (15 games as teammates)

60%3 of 5L20 · Without Larkin

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 3 of 5 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).

vs NJ, 2026-04-14: 0, hit, 13.3 min (not counted)
at BUF, 2026-04-19: 0, hit, 12.8 min (not counted)
at BUF, 2026-04-21: 0, hit, 13.9 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-04-23: 0, hit, 15.6 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-04-26: 0, hit, 3.2 min (not counted)
vs NYR, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 16.3 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-04: 0, hit, 21.4 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-06: 1, missed, 17.3 min (not counted)
vs SEA, 2026-10-09: 0, hit, 17.6 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 19.4 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 20.2 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 20 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 21 min (not counted)
at SEA, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 20.8 min (not counted)
at VAN, 2026-10-22: 2, missed, 14 min (not counted)
at CGY, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 20.3 min (not counted)
at EDM, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 18.2 min (not counted)
vs CHI, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 17.1 min
vs STL, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 20 min
at FLA, 2026-11-02: 1, missed, 18.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–1 assists.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against TB in his last 20; Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 6 against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Alex DeBrincatRW
Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Lucas RaymondLW
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TB

Arvidsson didn't play the Apr 13 meeting; assists the last time Arvidsson faced them: 0 (Apr 11)

Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against TB on record

L20 · Without Larkin · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 3 of 5
Price implies: 70%; at −228
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −163

Research, not a pick. At −227 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −163, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Larkin

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1767 books	−2282 books	3/5
	+9003 books	—	5/5

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle7 min ago	+166	−227Best
DraftKings11 min ago	+170	−230
Bally Bet7 min ago	+185Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	+185Best	—
BetRivers4 min ago	+185Best	—
Bovada7 min ago	+176	—
FanDuel4 min ago	+176	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:50 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Viktor Arvidsson's full game log and splits