Tommy Novak

Pittsburgh Penguins · C · #18

VGK @ PIT · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1557 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Bryan Rust: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 6 of 15; with him: 37 of 85 (100 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Evgeni Malkin: Out (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 15 of 27; with him: 29 of 75 (102 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 3 of 9; with him: 3 of 5 (14 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Adin Hill (Expected)
Saves: 233 of 262 (.889) over his last 10 games · 5 of VGK's last 10 starts

57%4 of 7L20 · Without Rust

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 4 of 7 games without Bryan Rust (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-18: 0, missed, 13.4 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-20: 3, cleared, 13.2 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-22: 1, missed, 12.7 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-25: 0, missed, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-27: 1, missed, 14.1 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-29: 2, cleared, 17.4 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-09-30: 0, missed, 16.1 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-03: 3, cleared, 14.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-05: 2, cleared, 15.2 min
at WSH, 2026-10-07: 3, cleared, 15.3 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-10-09: 1, missed, 14.6 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 15.7 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 16.6 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-16: 4, cleared, 15.3 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 12.7 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-19: 1, missed, 13.1 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 16.6 min
vs NSH, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 19.5 min
vs UTAH, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 17.1 min
at MTL, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 18 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Erik KarlssonD
Sidney CrosbyC
Bryan RustRWInjured Reserve
Evgeni MalkinCOut
Trevor van RiemsdykDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Penguins count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VGK

Shots on Goal: 1 in 12.7 min, Oct 17 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against VGK on record

L20 · Without Rust · Over 1.5

Average: 1.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 4 of 7
Price implies: 61%; at −155
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Time on ice: 16.7; 7 games · 14.3 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 57%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Rust

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−8503 books	—	5/7
−1557 books	+1125 books	4/7
+1883 books	—	2/7
+4603 books	—	0/7
+11001 book	—	0/7

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Pinnacle5 min ago	−146Best	+110
Bally Bet5 min ago	−155	+112
betPARX1 min ago	−155	+112
BetRivers1 min ago	−155	—
Bovada5 min ago	−155	+120Best
DraftKings9 min ago	−160	+120Best
FanDueljust now	−165	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:16 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −164 → −155 since first seen

Tommy Novak's full game log and splits