Tommy Novak

Pittsburgh Penguins · C · #18

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −2226 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

4 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Bryan Rust playing; Rust is out tonight. Without him: Under 0.5 in 11 of 15.

TonightTeammate out
Bryan Rust: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 11 of 15; with him: 60 of 85 (100 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Evgeni Malkin: Out (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 20 of 27; with him: 52 of 75 (102 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 6 of 9; with him: 3 of 5 (14 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Adin Hill (Expected)
Saves: 233 of 262 (.889) over his last 10 games · 5 of VGK's last 10 starts

57%4 of 7L20 · Without Rust

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 4 of 7 games without Bryan Rust (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-18: 1, missed, 13.4 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-20: 0, hit, 13.2 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-22: 1, missed, 12.7 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-27: 0, hit, 14.1 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-29: 0, hit, 17.4 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-09-30: 1, missed, 16.1 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-03: 1, missed, 14.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-05: 0, hit, 15.2 min
at WSH, 2026-10-07: 0, hit, 15.3 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-10-09: 0, hit, 14.6 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 15.7 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 16.6 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-16: 0, hit, 15.3 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-17: 2, missed, 12.7 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-19: 1, missed, 13.1 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 16.6 min
vs NSH, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 19.5 min
vs UTAH, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 17.1 min
at MTL, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 18 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–1 assists.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Erik KarlssonD
Sidney CrosbyC
Bryan RustRWInjured Reserve
Evgeni MalkinCOut
Trevor van RiemsdykDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Penguins count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VGK

Assists: 2 in 12.7 min, Oct 17 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 5 of 7 games against VGK on record

L20 · Without Rust · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 4 of 7
Price implies: 69%; at −222
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −182

Research, not a pick. At −220 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −182, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Rust

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1416 books	−2222 books	4/7
	+9482 books	—	7/7

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings16 min ago	+160	−220Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	+165Best	−225
Bally Bet6 min ago	+125	—
betPARX2 min ago	+125	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+125	—
FanDuel1 min ago	+162	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:58 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Tommy Novak's full game log and splits