Tomas Hertl

Vegas Golden Knights · C · #48

VGK @ DET · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1793 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at NSH, 2026-10-13: 2, cleared, 14.5 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-15: 3, cleared, 16.9 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 15.4 min
vs TB, 2026-10-20: 5, cleared, 17.2 min
at STL, 2026-10-22: 2, cleared, 14.3 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 12.9 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-27: 2, cleared, 12.9 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-30: 2, cleared, 15.7 min
at BOS, 2026-11-02: 4, cleared, 13.8 min
at PIT, 2026-11-03: 3, cleared, 15.2 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Daniil Tarasov (Confirmed)
Saves: 210 of 227 (.925) over his last 10 games · 4 of DET's last 10 starts · John Gibson started 5
Teammate out
Parker Wotherspoon: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 1.5 without him: 8 of 11; with him: 5 of 6 (17 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
DET allow 17.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 26th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 16.4, 29th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 14.1 min · 2026–27: 15.5 (17 games)
Power play: 2.2 min last 5 · 3.5 2026–27

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Mitch MarnerRW
Victor OlofssonLW
Jack EichelC
Parker WotherspoonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Golden Knights count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Shots on Goal: 2 in 16.6 min, Mar 4 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against DET on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.5; +1 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −179
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 66%; estimate · fair −193

Research, not a pick. At −175 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −193, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−10502 books	—	10/10
−1793 books	+1333 books	8/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
+1484 books	−2152 books	4/10
+3702 books	—	2/10
+8501 book	—	1/10
+20001 book	—	0/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings3 min ago	−175Best	+130
Pinnacle3 min ago	−179	+133
FanDuel3 min ago	−190	+144Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

2.5 → 1.5 since first seen

Tomas Hertl's full game log and splits