Tomas Hertl

Vegas Golden Knights · C · #48

VGK @ PIT · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1757 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightRest · back-to-back
Golden Knights played last night (at BOS): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Parker Wotherspoon: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 2.5 without him: 7 of 10; with him: 2 of 6 (16 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Arturs Silovs (Confirmed)
Saves: 247 of 275 (.898) over his last 10 games · 6 of PIT's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
PIT allow 20.5 shots on goal a game to forwards: 15th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 20.4, 13th most

70%7 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at MIN, 2026-10-12: 0, hit, 18.9 min
at NSH, 2026-10-13: 2, hit, 14.5 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-15: 3, missed, 16.9 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 15.4 min
vs TB, 2026-10-20: 5, missed, 17.2 min
at STL, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 14.3 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 12.9 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-27: 2, hit, 12.9 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-30: 2, hit, 15.7 min
at BOS, 2026-11-02: 4, missed, 13.8 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Mitch MarnerRW
Victor OlofssonLW
Jack EichelC
Parker WotherspoonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Golden Knights count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PIT

Shots on Goal: 1 in 15.4 min, Oct 17 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against PIT on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −175
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −147, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−13003 books	—	1/10
−2353 books	—	3/10
+1257 books	−1756 books	7/10
+3503 books	—	8/10
+7001 book	—	9/10
+15001 book	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bovada4 min ago	+130	−170Best
DraftKings9 min ago	+125	−170Best
Bally Bet4 min ago	+125	−175
betPARX2 min ago	+125	−175
FanDuel2 min ago	+136	−178
Pinnacle4 min ago	+143Best	−193
BetRivers2 min ago	+125	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:47 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Tomas Hertl's full game log and splits