Tom Wilson

Washington Capitals · RW · #43

DAL @ WSH · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1576 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs forwards
DAL allow 16.0 shots on goal a game to forwards: the fewest of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 15.8, the fewest
Teammate out
Rasmus Sandin: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 13 of 21; with him: 44 of 69 (90 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Vincent Desharnais: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Over 1.5 without him: 3 of 4; with him: 6 of 9 (13 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jake Oettinger (Confirmed)
Saves: 191 of 207 (.923) over his last 10 games · 8 of DAL's last 10 starts

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (6 of 8 at home).

vs NYR, 2026-10-09: 3, cleared, 21.7 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-11: 3, cleared, 20.8 min
at CAR, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 19.2 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-14: 5, cleared, 17.2 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 16.9 min
vs LA, 2026-10-20: 3, cleared, 17.7 min
vs BUF, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 19.2 min
vs PHI, 2026-10-28: 1, missed, 16.7 min
at NSH, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 19.7 min
vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 18 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 1 of 3 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Jack St. IvanyD
Alex TuchRW
Pierre-Luc DuboisLW
Rasmus SandinDInjured Reserve
Vincent DesharnaisDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Capitals count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Wilson didn't play the Jan 7 meeting; shots on goal the last time Wilson faced them: 1 (Oct 28, 2025)

Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against DAL on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 3; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −157
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −163

Research, not a pick. At −141 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −163, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7382 books	—	9/10
−1576 books	+1125 books	7/10
+1942 books	—	6/10
+4501 book	—	1/10
+11001 book	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Pinnacle3 min ago	−141Best	+106
FanDuel2 min ago	−152	+116
Bally Bet3 min ago	−157	+112
betPARX3 min ago	−157	+112
BetRivers3 min ago	−157	—
DraftKings11 min ago	−160	+120Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:46 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −175 → −157 since first seen

Tom Wilson's full game log and splits