Ryan Leonard

Washington Capitals · RW · #9

DAL @ WSH · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1783 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs forwards
DAL allow 16.0 shots on goal a game to forwards: the fewest of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 15.8, the fewest
Teammate out
Rasmus Sandin: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 17 of 22; with him: 47 of 69 (91 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Vincent Desharnais: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Over 1.5 without him: 4 of 4; with him: 8 of 9 (13 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jake Oettinger (Confirmed)
Saves: 191 of 207 (.923) over his last 10 games · 8 of DAL's last 10 starts

90%9 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 9 of his last 10 games (7 of 8 at home).

vs NYR, 2026-10-09: 2, cleared, 13.4 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-11: 4, cleared, 15.4 min
at CAR, 2026-10-13: 2, cleared, 13.2 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-14: 1, missed, 14.9 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-17: 2, cleared, 13.4 min
vs LA, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 17.5 min
vs BUF, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 15.2 min
vs PHI, 2026-10-28: 4, cleared, 14.3 min
at NSH, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 13.9 min
vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 12.3 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–5 shots on goal.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 1 of 2 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Jack St. IvanyD
Alex TuchRW
Pierre-Luc DuboisLW
Rasmus SandinDInjured Reserve
Vincent DesharnaisDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Capitals count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Shots on Goal: 2 in 22.1 min, Jan 7 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against DAL on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.6; +1.1 vs line
Median: 2.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −178
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 68%; estimate · fair −215

Research, not a pick. At −165 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −215, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8242 books	—	10/10
−1783 books	+1333 books	9/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
+1305 books	−1822 books	5/10
+4092 books	—	2/10
+8501 book	—	0/10
+20001 book	—	0/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−165Best	+126
Pinnacle4 min ago	−178	+133
DraftKings4 min ago	−190	+140Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:58 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

2.5 → 1.5 since first seen

Ryan Leonard's full game log and splits