Roope Hintz

Dallas Stars · C · #24

DAL @ CBJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1596 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

53%8 of 15L20 · Without Duchene

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 8 of 15 games without Matt Duchene (his last 20 games).

at VGK, 2026-01-29: 2, cleared, 15.3 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-01-31: 2, cleared, 15.9 min (not counted)
vs WPG, 2026-02-02: 1, missed, 19.5 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2026-02-04: 5, cleared, 15.1 min (not counted)
vs COL, 2026-03-06: 1, missed, 11.4 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2026-10-02: 0, missed, 17 min
at NSH, 2026-10-03: 2, cleared, 16.1 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-05: 1, missed, 15.5 min
at BUF, 2026-10-08: 6, cleared, 15 min
at PIT, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 20.7 min
vs COL, 2026-10-13: 2, cleared, 16.5 min
at COL, 2026-10-14: 1, missed, 18.1 min
at CHI, 2026-10-17: 3, cleared, 16.9 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 17.9 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-22: 5, cleared, 15.3 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 16.3 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-27: 2, cleared, 13.2 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 19.5 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-31: 0, missed, 16.9 min
at WSH, 2026-11-03: 2, cleared, 14.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Matt Duchene: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Over 1.5 without him: 25 of 35; with him: 23 of 43 (78 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Miro Heiskanen: Out (upper body)
Over 1.5 without him: 2 of 2; with him: 44 of 73 (75 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Sam Steel: Out (personal)
Over 1.5 without him: 2 of 2; with him: 46 of 76 (78 games as teammates). A small sample.
Opposing goalie
Cam Talbot (Confirmed)
Saves: 190 of 216 (.880) over his last 10 games · 5 of CBJ's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Mikko RantanenRW
Jason RobertsonLW
Matt DucheneCInjured Reserve
Miro HeiskanenDOut
Sam SteelCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Stars count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Shots on Goal: 0 in 16.9 min, Oct 31 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against CBJ on record

L20 · Without Duchene · Over 1.5

Average: 1.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 53%; 8 of 15
Price implies: 61%; at −159
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −146 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Duchene

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−7502 books	—	12/15
−1596 books	+1124 books	8/15
+1802 books	—	3/15
+4501 book	—	2/15
+11001 book	—	2/15

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel6 min ago	−146Best	—
Bally Bet6 min ago	−159	+112
betPARX6 min ago	−159	+112
BetRivers5 min ago	−159	—
DraftKings6 min ago	−160	+120
Pinnacle6 min ago	−171	+128Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:20 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

−148 → −159 since first seen

Roope Hintz's full game log and splits