Pavel Buchnevich

St. Louis Blues · LW · #89

STL @ NJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −1855 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

vs CBJ, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 17 min
at OTT, 2026-10-13: 3, missed, 18.4 min
at NSH, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 18.5 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 19.6 min
vs VGK, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 17.2 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 15.4 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 22 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 15.9 min
at DET, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 14.4 min
at NYR, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 18.8 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Connor Hellebuyck (Expected)
Saves: 195 of 223 (.874) over his last 10 games · 3 of NJ's last 10 starts · Jake Allen started 5
Teammate out
Logan Mailloux: Injured Reserve (hand)
Under 0.5 without him: 19 of 29; with him: 33 of 66 (95 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Tyler Tucker: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 17 of 27; with him: 35 of 68 (95 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
NJ allow 5.67 points a game to forwards: 25th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 5.00, 30th most

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NJ in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 5 against NJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Dylan HollowayLW
Jimmy SnuggerudRW
Robert ThomasC
Logan MaillouxDInjured Reserve
Tyler TuckerDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Blues count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NJ

Points: 1 in 18.3 min, Feb 28 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against NJ on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −185
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −155

Research, not a pick. At −180 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −155, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1405 books	−1852 books	6/10
	+7004 books	—	9/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle6 min ago	+130	−180Best
DraftKings6 min ago	+135	−185
Bally Bet5 min ago	+140	—
betPARX1 min ago	+143Best	—
BetRivers2 min ago	+143Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:38 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under: −180 → −185 since first seen

Pavel Buchnevich's full game log and splits