Noah Ostlund

Buffalo Sabres · C · #86

CBJ @ BUF · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1522 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

vs FLA, 2026-10-12: 3, cleared, 17.9 min
at MTL, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 19.7 min
at TOR, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 21.7 min
at MTL, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 19.7 min
vs PHI, 2026-10-21: 3, cleared, 21.7 min
at WSH, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 16.4 min
at SJ, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 18.9 min
at ANA, 2026-10-29: 5, cleared, 19.4 min
at LA, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 18.2 min
vs OTT, 2026-11-04: 4, cleared, 21.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Cam Talbot (Expected); he started the day before too
Saves: 206 of 232 (.888) over his last 10 games · 6 of CBJ's last 10 starts
Teammate out
Konsta Helenius: Out (upper body)
Over 1.5 without him: 12 of 23; with him: 7 of 20 (43 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
CBJ allow 18.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: 25th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 17.7, 26th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 18.9 min · 2026–27: 19.1 (15 games)
Power play: 3 min last 5 · 3.4 2026–27

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CBJ in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 2 of 4 against CBJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Tage ThompsonC
Rasmus DahlinD
Zach BensonLW
Konsta HeleniusCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Sabres count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Shots on Goal: 3 in 16.7 min, Oct 1 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against CBJ on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −152
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −167

Research, not a pick. At −152 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −167, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8002 books	—	10/10
−1522 books	+1161 book	5/10
+2052 books	—	5/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada5 min ago	−152Best	—
FanDuel2 min ago	−152Best	+116Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:55 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −148 → −152 since first seen

Noah Ostlund's full game log and splits