Nikolaj Ehlers

Carolina Hurricanes · LW · #27

CHI @ CAR · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −2006 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

at WPG, 2026-10-17: 1, cleared, 15.9 min
at CGY, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 16.4 min
at VAN, 2026-10-20: 3, cleared, 17.2 min
at EDM, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 17.1 min
at STL, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 15.5 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 16.3 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 15.9 min
vs WPG, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 13.4 min
at NSH, 2026-11-03: 0, missed, 19 min
at NYI, 2026-11-05: 0, missed, 15.8 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
CHI allow 7.59 points a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 7.40, 7th most
Teammate out
Jordan Staal: Injured Reserve (calf)
Over 0.5 without him: 13 of 19; with him: 56 of 99 (118 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Spencer Knight (Expected)
Saves: 272 of 305 (.892) over his last 10 games · 8 of CHI's last 10 starts
Time on ice
Last 5: 16.1 min · 2026–27: 16.2 (18 games)
Power play: 2.9 min last 5 · 3.6 2026–27

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CHI in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 3 of 5 against CHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Sebastian AhoC
Jackson BlakeRW
Andrei SvechnikovLW
Jordan StaalCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hurricanes count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CHI

Points: 1 in 13.1 min, Oct 10 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against CHI on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1; +0.5 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 67%; at −200
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −185 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −147, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2006 books	+1352 books	7/10
+2305 books	—	2/10
+7005 books	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings7 min ago	−185Best	+135
Bally Bet7 min ago	−200	—
betPARX6 min ago	−200	—
BetRivers6 min ago	−200	—
Pinnacle7 min ago	−200	+148Best
FanDuel7 min ago	−205	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:05 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −225 → −200 since first seen

Nikolaj Ehlers's full game log and splits