Nikolaj Ehlers

Carolina Hurricanes · LW · #27

CAR @ NSH · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1757 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Taylor Hall: Out (upper body)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 10; with him: 60 of 106 (116 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jordan Staal: Injured Reserve (calf)
Over 0.5 without him: 13 of 17; with him: 56 of 99 (116 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Juuse Saros (Confirmed)
Saves: 278 of 308 (.903) over his last 10 games · 7 of NSH's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
NSH allow 6.29 points a game to forwards: 19th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 6.40, 17th most

80%8 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at PHI, 2026-10-11: 0, missed, 17.7 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-13: 1, cleared, 19.8 min
at WPG, 2026-10-17: 1, cleared, 15.9 min
at CGY, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 16.4 min
at VAN, 2026-10-20: 3, cleared, 17.2 min
at EDM, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 17.1 min
at STL, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 15.5 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 16.3 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 15.9 min
vs WPG, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 13.4 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 points.

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NSH in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 4 of 6 against NSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Sebastian AhoC
Jackson BlakeRW
Andrei SvechnikovLW
Taylor HallLWOut
Jordan StaalCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Hurricanes count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NSH

Points: 1 in 15.5 min, Dec 17, 2025 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against NSH on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −175
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −165

Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −165, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1757 books	+1282 books	8/10
+2706 books	—	2/10
+9006 books	—	1/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle9 min ago	−170Best	+127
Bovada8 min ago	−173	—
Bally Bet9 min ago	−175	—
betPARX5 min ago	−175	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−175	—
DraftKings15 min ago	−175	+130Best
FanDuel5 min ago	−200	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:28 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over −205 → −175 since first seen

Nikolaj Ehlers's full game log and splits