Nikita Kucherov

Tampa Bay Lightning · RW · #86

CHI @ TB · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Assists, typical price −2357 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Assists cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at NYI, 2026-10-10: 2, cleared, 17.8 min
at NYR, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 23.3 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 22.3 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 20.7 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 18.3 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 20.7 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 20 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 16.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 23.7 min
vs DET, 2026-11-03: 2, cleared, 21.7 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 assists.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Arvid Soderblom (Expected)
Saves: 268 of 307 (.873) over his last 10 games · 1 of CHI's last 10 starts · Spencer Knight started 9
Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 14; with him: 52 of 83 (97 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
CHI allow 4.13 assists a game to forwards: 7th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 4.00, 9th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 20.5 min · 2026–27: 21 (14 games)
Power play: 5 min last 5 · 4.8 2026–27

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CHI in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against CHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Brandon HagelLW
Jake GuentzelC
Brayden PointC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CHI

Assists: 0 in 23.8 min, Jan 23 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against CHI on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 70%; at −235
Books’ fair: 66%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −187

Research, not a pick. At −213 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −187, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2357 books	+1702 books	6/10
+2006 books	—	4/10
+8003 books	—	1/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bovada2 min ago	−213Best	—
FanDuel2 min ago	−225	—
Bally Bet3 min ago	−235	—
betPARX4 min ago	−235	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−235	—
DraftKings3 min ago	−235	+170
Pinnacle3 min ago	−245	+178Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:20 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

1.5 → 0.5 since first seen

Nikita Kucherov's full game log and splits