Nick Paul

Toronto Maple Leafs · LW · #20

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1462 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

2 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with John Tavares playing; Tavares is out tonight. Without him: Under 1.5 in 7 of 9.

TonightTeammate out
John Tavares: Out (lower body)
Under 1.5 without him: 7 of 9; with him: 4 of 7 (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 1.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 10 of 14 (16 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Under 1.5 without him: 11 of 16; with him: no games (16 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Karel Vejmelka started UTAH's last game
Saves: 209 of 242 (.864) over his last 10 games · 8 of UTAH's last 10 starts · no probable starter posted yet

78%7 of 9L20 · Without Tavares

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal hit in 7 of 9 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

at MTL, 2026-04-24: 1, hit, 8 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-04-26: 0, hit, 7.6 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-05-01: 0, hit, 12.4 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-05-03: 2, missed, 12.6 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 0, hit, 15.5 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 1, hit, 15.7 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 2, missed, 17.1 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 2, missed, 13.5 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-08: 2, missed, 17.1 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 17.3 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 14 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 1, hit, 17.2 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 14.6 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 1, hit, 18.9 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 2, missed, 16.8 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 17.5 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 16 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 17.6 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 16.3 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 17.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

William NylanderRW
Auston MatthewsC
John TavaresCOut
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Shots on Goal: 0 in 14 min, Oct 13 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Under 1.5

Average: 0.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 78%; 7 of 9
Price implies: 59%; at −146
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −144

Research, not a pick. At −134 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −144, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Tavares

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−3401 book	—	3/9
+1072 books	−1462 books	7/9
+3601 book	—	9/9
+10001 book	—	9/9

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet5 hr ago	−104	−134Best
DraftKings5 hr ago	+120Best	−160
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

Nick Paul's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:12 PM ET.