Nathan MacKinnon

Colorado Avalanche · C · #29

COL @ CBJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Points, typical price −1897 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightRest · back-to-back
Avalanche played last night (at CHI): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Under 1.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: 55 of 101 (109 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Cam Talbot (Confirmed)
Saves: 178 of 207 (.860) over his last 10 games · 5 of CBJ's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
CBJ allow 6.83 points a game to forwards: 10th most of 32
12 games · last 10 games: 6.70, 11th most

60%6 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at DAL, 2026-10-13: 2, missed, 20 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-14: 0, hit, 25.4 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 4, missed, 23 min
at PHI, 2026-10-19: 0, hit, 24.3 min
at NJ, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 21.3 min
vs TB, 2026-10-23: 4, missed, 18.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-25: 1, hit, 19.8 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 19 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 19.1 min
at CHI, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 19.4 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 points.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CBJ in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 2 of 4 against CBJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Martin NecasC
Devon ToewsD
Artturi LehkonenLW
Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Points: 0 in 20.1 min, Jan 10 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against CBJ on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −189
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −171 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −147, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3526 books	—	3/10
+1257 books	−1892 books	6/10
+3906 books	—	8/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Pinnacle11 min ago	+128	−171Best
DraftKings20 min ago	+155	−210
Bally Bet11 min ago	+125	—
betPARX5 min ago	+125	—
BetRivers6 min ago	+125	—
Bovada11 min ago	+125	—
FanDuel5 min ago	+162Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:07 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

Nathan MacKinnon's full game log and splits