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Morgan Rielly

Toronto Maple Leafs · D · #44

UTAH @ TOR · Tue, Nov 3 7:00 PM
OverUnder1.5
Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price +1281 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different yesterday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • YesterdayTeammate out

    John Tavares: Out (lower body)

    Over 1.5 without him: 3 of 9; with him: 45 of 92 (101 games as teammates)

  • YesterdayDefense vs defensemen

    UTAH allow 6.1 shots on goal a game to defensemen: 31st most of 32

    15 games · last 10 games: 6.7, 25th most

  • Teammate out

    Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)

    Over 1.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 4 of 14 (16 games as teammates). A small sample.

  • Teammate out

    Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)

    Over 1.5 without him: 7 of 18; with him: 41 of 83 (101 games as teammates)

Game log against Over 1.5

33%3 of 9L20 · Without Tavares

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 3 of 9 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

  1. at NYI, 2026-04-09: 2, cleared, 20.8 min (not counted)
  2. vs FLA, 2026-04-11: 1, missed, 20.2 min (not counted)
  3. vs DAL, 2026-04-13: 1, missed, 18 min (not counted)
  4. at OTT, 2026-04-15: 1, missed, 20.1 min (not counted)
  5. vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 1, missed, 21.5 min (not counted)
  6. vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 1, missed, 19.8 min (not counted)
  7. vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 1, missed, 18.4 min (not counted)
  8. vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 2, cleared, 20.7 min (not counted)
  9. at VGK, 2026-10-08: 1, missed, 21 min (not counted)
  10. at COL, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 18.8 min
  11. at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 16.2 min (not counted)
  12. vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 3, cleared, 18.6 min (not counted)
  13. vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 17.8 min
  14. vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 3, cleared, 21.1 min
  15. at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 22.8 min
  16. vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 3, cleared, 21 min
  17. at EDM, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 18.9 min
  18. at CGY, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 19.5 min
  19. at SEA, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 19.9 min
  20. at VAN, 2026-10-31: 2, cleared, 18 min
ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

  • William NylanderRW

  • Auston MatthewsC

  • John TavaresCOut

  • Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve

  • Max DomiCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Shots on Goal: 1 in 16.2 min, Oct 13 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Over 1.5

Average
1.1
−0.4 vs line
Median
1
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
33%
3 of 9
Price implies
44%
at +128
Books’ fair
41%
margin removed
Time on ice
19.8
9 games · 21.1 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 41%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Tavares
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL20
+1281 book−1771 book3/9
Compare 1 sportsbook at 1.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 1.5Under 1.5
Bally Bet5 hr ago+128Best−177Best

Prices as of 7:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over +110 → +128 since first seen

Morgan Rielly's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:12 PM ET.