Mikko Rantanen

Dallas Stars · RW · #96

SJ @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1757 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

69%11 of 16L20 · Without Duchene

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 11 of 16 games without Matt Duchene (his last 20 games).

at MIN, 2026-04-22: 6, missed, 27.2 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 2, hit, 23 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-28: 2, hit, 23.5 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 0, hit, 21.8 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2026-10-02: 1, hit, 22.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-03: 3, missed, 23.9 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-05: 3, missed, 17.6 min
at BUF, 2026-10-08: 2, hit, 15.5 min
at PIT, 2026-10-10: 4, missed, 23.2 min
vs COL, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 21.6 min
at COL, 2026-10-14: 1, hit, 22.7 min
at CHI, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 18.8 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-20: 6, missed, 22.2 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 20.2 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-25: 2, hit, 18.9 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 17.5 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-29: 1, hit, 23.1 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 18.8 min
at WSH, 2026-11-03: 1, hit, 18.9 min
at CBJ, 2026-11-05: 1, hit, 19.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Matt Duchene: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Under 2.5 without him: 25 of 40; with him: 36 of 57 (97 games as teammates)
TodayOpposing goalie
Alex Nedeljkovic (Expected)
Saves: 270 of 299 (.903) over his last 10 games · 3 of SJ's last 10 starts · Yaroslav Askarov started 7
TodayDefense vs forwards
SJ allow 22.1 shots on goal a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32
18 games · last 10 games: 23.8, the most
Teammate out
Miro Heiskanen: Out (upper body)
Under 2.5 without him: 5 of 6; with him: 54 of 88 (94 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L20

Jason RobertsonLW
Matt DucheneCInjured Reserve
Wyatt JohnstonC
Miro HeiskanenDOut
Oskar BackCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Stars count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SJ

Shots on Goal: 3 in 17.6 min, Oct 5 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against SJ on record

L20 · Without Duchene · Under 2.5

Average: 1.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 1; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 69%; 11 of 16
Price implies: 64%; at −175
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −177

Research, not a pick. At −135 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −177, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Duchene

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−17253 books	—	2/16
−2653 books	—	9/16
+1207 books	−1756 books	11/16
+3003 books	—	14/16
+6703 books	—	15/16
+18001 book	—	15/16

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bovada5 min ago	+105	−135Best
FanDuel2 min ago	+114	−148
Pinnacle2 min ago	+120	−156
Bally Bet2 min ago	+120	−175
betPARX1 min ago	+120	−175
DraftKings2 min ago	+135Best	−180
BetRivers1 min ago	+120	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:08 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −152 → −175 since first seen

Mikko Rantanen's full game log and splits