Mikko Rantanen

Dallas Stars · RW · #96

DAL @ CBJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1853 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

47%7 of 15L20 · Without Duchene

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 7 of 15 games without Matt Duchene (his last 20 games).

vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 1, missed, 19.2 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-22: 6, cleared, 27.2 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 2, cleared, 23 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-28: 2, cleared, 23.5 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 0, missed, 21.8 min (not counted)
vs STL, 2026-10-02: 1, missed, 22.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-03: 3, cleared, 23.9 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-05: 3, cleared, 17.6 min
at BUF, 2026-10-08: 2, cleared, 15.5 min
at PIT, 2026-10-10: 4, cleared, 23.2 min
vs COL, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 21.6 min
at COL, 2026-10-14: 1, missed, 22.7 min
at CHI, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 18.8 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-20: 6, cleared, 22.2 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 20.2 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 18.9 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-27: 0, missed, 17.5 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 23.1 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 18.8 min
at WSH, 2026-11-03: 1, missed, 18.9 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Matt Duchene: Injured Reserve (abdomen)
Over 1.5 without him: 26 of 39; with him: 31 of 57 (96 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Oskar Back: Injured Reserve (finger)
Over 1.5 without him: 13 of 24; with him: 44 of 72 (96 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jet Greaves (Expected)
Saves: 188 of 212 (.887) over his last 10 games · 5 of CBJ's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
CBJ allow 18.8 shots on goal a game to forwards: 22nd most of 32
13 games · last 10 games: 18.2, 24th most

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Jason RobertsonLW
Matt DucheneCInjured Reserve
Wyatt JohnstonC
Oskar BackCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Stars count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Shots on Goal: 3 in 18.8 min, Oct 31 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against CBJ on record

L20 · Without Duchene · Over 1.5

Average: 1.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 47%; 7 of 15
Price implies: 65%; at −185
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −128

Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −128, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Duchene

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−10502 books	—	13/15
−1853 books	+1383 books	7/15
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/15
+1255 books	−1772 books	5/15
+4002 books	—	2/15
+10001 book	—	1/15

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings9 min ago	−170Best	+125
Pinnacle9 min ago	−185	+138
FanDuel3 min ago	−192	+146Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:35 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

−192 → −185 since first seen

Mikko Rantanen's full game log and splits