Mikhail Sergachev

Utah Mammoth · D · #98

UTAH @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price +1432 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs defensemen
TOR allow 8.8 shots on goal a game to defensemen: the most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 9.8, the most
Teammate out
Kailer Yamamoto: Out (upper body)
Over 2.5 without him: 7 of 29; with him: 24 of 70 (99 games as teammates)
Teammate out
John Marino: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 2.5 without him: 2 of 8; with him: 29 of 91 (99 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Anthony Stolarz started TOR's last game
Saves: 230 of 255 (.902) over his last 10 games · 4 of TOR's last 10 starts · Sergei Bobrovsky started 6 · no probable starter posted yet

40%4 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 on the road).

at BUF, 2026-10-10: 3, cleared, 25.4 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-13: 2, missed, 23.7 min
at EDM, 2026-10-15: 2, missed, 24.7 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-17: 4, cleared, 21 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-19: 4, cleared, 24.9 min
at SEA, 2026-10-22: 2, missed, 27 min
vs TB, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 26 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-27: 0, missed, 24.2 min
at PIT, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 26.3 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 2, missed, 24.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Clayton KellerRW
Logan CooleyC
Nick SchmaltzC
Kailer YamamotoRWOut
John MarinoDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Shots on Goal: 2 in 23.7 min, Oct 13 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 1 of 5 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 2.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 41%; at +143
Books’ fair: 38%; margin removed
Time on ice: 24.8; 10 games · 24.5 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 38%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−10001 book	—	9/10
−1962 books	+1201 book	9/10
+1432 books	−1922 books	4/10
+3101 book	—	2/10
+7501 book	—	0/10
+17001 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle27 min ago	+152Best	−205
DraftKings27 min ago	+135	−180Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

+175 → +143 since first seen

Mikhail Sergachev's full game log and splits