Michael Carcone

Utah Mammoth · LW · #53

UTAH @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1365 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 7 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came before Carcone missed 9 games. Since he came back: Over 1.5 in 0 of 1.

TonightBack from an absence
Tonight is his 2nd game back after missing 9 games in a row (Oct 10 – Oct 29)
Over 1.5 since: 0 of 1
Teammate out
John Marino: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 1.5 without him: 0 of 3; with him: 55 of 88 (91 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Maveric Lamoureux: Injured Reserve (shoulder)
Over 1.5 without him: 36 of 61; with him: 4 of 5 (66 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Sergei Bobrovsky (Confirmed)
Saves: 255 of 288 (.885) over his last 10 games · 6 of TOR's last 10 starts

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 on the road).

vs VGK, 2026-04-24: 0, missed, 10.1 min
vs VGK, 2026-04-27: 4, cleared, 15.1 min
at VGK, 2026-04-29: 2, cleared, 17.6 min
vs VGK, 2026-05-01: 1, missed, 17 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-01: 2, cleared, 12.7 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-03: 3, cleared, 13.1 min
at NYR, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 12.7 min
at NJ, 2026-10-06: 3, cleared, 10.8 min
at BOS, 2026-10-08: 7, cleared, 13.2 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 13.7 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Count only

Over 1.5 · L10

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Clayton KellerRW
Mikhail SergachevD
Logan CooleyC
John MarinoDInjured Reserve
Maveric LamoureuxDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Carcone didn't play the Oct 13 meeting; shots on goal the last time Carcone faced them: 5 (Jan 13)

Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −136
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −136 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −135, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6052 books	—	8/10
−1365 books	−1033 books	7/10
+2172 books	—	4/10
+5001 book	—	2/10
+12001 book	—	1/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet2 min ago	−136Best	−103
betPARX3 min ago	−136Best	−103
BetRivers3 min ago	−136Best	—
FanDuel1 min ago	−138	—
DraftKings2 min ago	−140	+100Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:53 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −140 → −136 since first seen

Michael Carcone's full game log and splits