Matvei Gridin

Calgary Flames · RW · #92

ANA @ CGY · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1922 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

at VGK, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 13.7 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 15.9 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 15 min
vs DET, 2026-10-24: 4, missed, 17.9 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-26: 5, missed, 16.2 min
at EDM, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 22.5 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-30: 5, missed, 16.3 min
at COL, 2026-10-31: 2, hit, 13.6 min
at SJ, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 15.9 min
at SEA, 2026-11-04: 2, hit, 15.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tomorrow's game: a typical game lands 1–4 shots on goal.

What's different tomorrow

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TomorrowOpposing goalie
Ville Husso (Expected)
Saves: 186 of 219 (.849) over his last 10 games · 3 of ANA's last 10 starts · Lukas Dostal started 5
Teammate out
Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 2.5 without him: 29 of 41; with him: 6 of 8 (49 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Connor Zary: Out (knee)
Under 2.5 without him: 14 of 20; with him: 24 of 33 (53 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
ANA allow 20.5 shots on goal a game to forwards: 15th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 21.9, 5th most

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ANA in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 6 against ANA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Joel FarabeeLW
Matt CoronatoRW
Morgan FrostC
Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve
Connor ZaryCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tomorrow. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs ANA

Shots on Goal: 2 in 14.3 min, Oct 13 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against ANA on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −192
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −166

Research, not a pick. At −192 the price is worse than our fair −166, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−13002 books	—	1/10
−2152 books	—	3/10
+1462 books	−1921 book	7/10
+3652 books	—	7/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel1 min ago	+146Best	−192Best
Bovada2 min ago	+146Best	—

Prices as of 10:25 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: No move since first seen

Matvei Gridin's full game log and splits