Matvei Gridin

Calgary Flames · RW · #92

CGY @ SEA · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1957 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

at ANA, 2026-10-13: 2, hit, 14.3 min
at VGK, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 13.7 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 15.9 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 15 min
vs DET, 2026-10-24: 4, missed, 17.9 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-26: 5, missed, 16.2 min
at EDM, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 22.5 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-30: 5, missed, 16.3 min
at COL, 2026-10-31: 2, hit, 13.6 min
at SJ, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 15.9 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Joey Daccord (Confirmed)
Saves: 242 of 275 (.880) over his last 10 games · 3 of SEA's last 10 starts · Philipp Grubauer started 7
TodayDefense vs forwards
SEA allow 22.2 shots on goal a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 23.0, 4th most
Teammate out
Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 2.5 without him: 28 of 40; with him: 6 of 8 (48 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Connor Zary: Out (knee)
Under 2.5 without him: 13 of 19; with him: 24 of 33 (52 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Matt CoronatoRW
Joel FarabeeLW
Morgan FrostC
Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve
Connor ZaryCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SEA

Shots on Goal: 5 in 16.3 min, Oct 30 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against SEA on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −195
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −162

Research, not a pick. At −175 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −162, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−12003 books	—	1/10
−2153 books	—	3/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/10
+1357 books	−1955 books	7/10
+3603 books	—	7/10
+7001 book	—	8/10
+17001 book	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings3 min ago	+130	−175Best
Bally Bet3 min ago	+135	−195
betPARX2 min ago	+135	−195
FanDuel2 min ago	+148	−196
Pinnacle3 min ago	+148	−196
BetRivers2 min ago	+135	—
Bovada3 min ago	+150Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

1.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Matvei Gridin's full game log and splits