Matthew Knies

Columbus Blue Jackets · LW · #89

CBJ @ BUF · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1255 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 on the road).

vs FLA, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 18.1 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-17: 2, missed, 21.2 min
at MIN, 2026-10-18: 0, hit, 19.9 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-20: 3, missed, 18.6 min
vs VGK, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 19.2 min
at PHI, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 16.3 min
at CAR, 2026-10-29: 1, hit, 17.1 min
at DAL, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 17.5 min
vs COL, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 17.8 min
vs DAL, 2026-11-05: 1, hit, 19.3 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayRest · back-to-back
Blue Jackets played the day before (vs DAL): a back-to-back
Opposing goalie
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Expected)
Saves: 227 of 260 (.873) over his last 10 games · 7 of BUF's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
BUF allow 20.9 shots on goal a game to forwards: 9th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 23.2, 4th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 17.6 min · 2026–27: 18.2 (14 games)
Power play: 2.7 min last 5 · 3.1 2026–27

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 8 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Zach WerenskiD
Charlie CoyleC
Kent JohnsonC

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Blue Jackets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Shots on Goal: 4 in 16.1 min, Oct 1 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 8 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −109 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5402 books	—	3/10
−1105 books	−1252 books	7/10
+2903 books	—	9/10
+8001 book	—	10/10
+20001 book	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
betPARX3 min ago	−129	−109Best
DraftKings10 min ago	−105Best	−125
BetRivers1 min ago	−130	—
Bovada10 min ago	−110	—
FanDuel3 min ago	−108	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:52 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

Matthew Knies's full game log and splits