Matt Coronato

Calgary Flames · RW · #27

ANA @ CGY · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1346 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at VGK, 2026-10-15: 3, missed, 16 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-18: 3, missed, 19.5 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 16.4 min
vs DET, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 16.2 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-26: 2, hit, 18.7 min
at EDM, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 18.2 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 13.5 min
at COL, 2026-10-31: 2, hit, 15.6 min
at SJ, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 18.6 min
at SEA, 2026-11-04: 1, hit, 17 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 2.5 without him: 22 of 42; with him: 29 of 49 (91 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Connor Zary: Out (knee)
Under 2.5 without him: 14 of 22; with him: 40 of 74 (96 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Lukas Dostal (Expected)
Saves: 226 of 263 (.859) over his last 10 games · 4 of ANA's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
ANA allow 20.5 shots on goal a game to forwards: 14th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 20.8, 12th most

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ANA in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 12 against ANA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Joel FarabeeLW
Matvei GridinRW
Morgan FrostC
Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve
Connor ZaryCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs ANA

Shots on Goal: 5 in 17.2 min, Oct 13 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 12 games against ANA on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2; −0.5 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −134
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −147, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−17253 books	—	1/10
−2703 books	—	3/10
−1066 books	−1344 books	6/10
+2603 books	—	10/10
+6003 books	—	10/10
+12001 book	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel3 min ago	+100	−130Best
Bally Bet14 min ago	−106	−134
betPARX2 min ago	−106	−134
DraftKings14 min ago	+105	−140
BetRivers3 min ago	−106	—
Bovada14 min ago	+120Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:21 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −156 → −134 since first seen

Matt Coronato's full game log and splits