Martin Necas
DET @ COL · Today 9:00 PM
Game log against Under 2.5
70%7 of 10L10
Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.
What's different today
Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Under 2.5 without him: 3 of 10; with him: 51 of 98 (108 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
John Gibson (Expected)
Saves: 183 of 215 (.851) over his last 10 games · 5 of DET's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
DET allow 17.9 shots on goal a game to forwards: 26th most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 17.5, 27th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 19.7 min · 2026–27: 19.9 (17 games)
Power play: 4.1 min last 5 · 3.7 2026–27
Splits
Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against DET in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 1 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 2.5 · L10Nathan MacKinnonC
Cale MakarD
Devon ToewsD
Josh MansonDOut
The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs DET
Necas didn't play the Feb 2 meeting; shots on goal the last time Necas faced them: 2 (Mar 25, 2025)
Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against DET on record
L10 · Under 2.5
- Average
- 1.9
- −0.6 vs line
- Median
- 2
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 58%
- at −140
- Books’ fair
- 54%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 60%
- estimate · fair −148
Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −148, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −14001 book | — | 1/10 | |
| −3102 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +1026 books | −1405 books | 7/10 | |
| +2502 books | — | 9/10 | |
| +5502 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +13001 book | — | 10/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | +100 | −130Best |
| Pinnacle3 min ago | +100 | −130Best |
| DraftKings3 min ago | +105Best | −140 |
| Bally Bet2 min ago | +102 | −148 |
| betPARX2 min ago | +102 | −148 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | +102 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 11:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
2.5Under: −176 → −140 since first seen